Learn to do Technical Analysis, Next Group Class November 18!
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This event is different from a data release or Advisory Committee Meeting. In this case, the limited information we know is that there are going to be 3 people hosting parts of the presentation. If the update were to be something dire like, “we are ending the study and abandoning this line of medicine,” they probably wouldn’t need leading cancer researcher, M. Yair Levy, M.D, who has no managerial affiliation with the company. So it is our subjective opinion that this event is likely to be a positive one.
Having said that, since it is already publicized, there is probably a reason the Runup Traders will be eyeing this idea. Knowing we are getting an update about a Phase 3 study offers rumor creators the opportunity to talk up efficacy data, safety data, invent numbers about the size of the potential market, and any number of other things. So the traders who like to “buy the rumor, and sell the news” are probably going to be circling, and monitoring the 1 hour technicals for a MACD bullish cross and the Williams % R to get over -50.
Simultaneously, the market loves positive data, especially when the FDA isn’t making an official decision at this time. Event Traders might have something to watch here if the market likes the presentation. Monitoring the volume that day and comparing it to average daily volume will give those traders an idea as to if the market is reacting favorably and buying up shares in the company after the presentation.
And in this unique case, the Afterglow traders might swoop in and buy a profit takers selloff in the days after the event since the data is only going to spur more rumors until the FDA finally has a say. In cases like this, the real news is when the FDA decides to approve it or not. Everything leading up to that point is a place to speculate and will create volatility.